Kamikuza said..
You mean like SARS, bird flu, swine flu...?
Yes, and no. It's interesting to look at the comparison.
People are saying that SARS had a lower infection rate. I just read the WHO global consensus report on SARS, and it appears it had an R0 of around 3, but this was reduced to below 1 by infection control measures. As a result, even with a mortality rate of around 10%, only 800 people died from it.
Coronavirus seems to have a similar R0 of around 3, but a much lower mortality rate than SARS. Yet, there are over 100,000 cases and 4,000 deaths, with the number of infections doubling every 4-5 days and the daily death rate on a steady rise. Project those numbers and there is potential for millions of deaths.
I draw the conclusion that rather ironically, the lower mortality rate of Coronavirus is making it more deadly. People were so freakin' scared about SARS that the infection control was effective. However, so many people are complacent about Coronavirus that they are mostly ignoring any infection control and going about their normal daily activities, thus the continuing exponential growth. Most countries have done sweet FA until it is too late. If Corona was killing 10%, no doubt we'd all be doing a heck of a lot more to reduce the transmission. There'd be massive blitz education on all TV stations and imperatives given to everyone to follow the advice religiously. We've over 100 confirmed cases in Australia, which is likely more like 1,000 due to the incubation period, the number is climbing steadily each day, and still, the only thing we are really concerned about is running out of toilet paper.
Due to complacency, it has spread globally, which is not like SARS or MERS, and with a mortality rate 30 times higher than swine flu, it's not like that either. Time will tell, I'd love to be wrong, but I feel the Italian twitter post shown earlier in this thread could turn out to be rather prophetic. I'm also amazed by how many people are saying 'who cares, only old people will die', what an absolutely disgusting attitude.