OK,
Got it, and you're right it's the same gybe, but you went wide, so it's very short, only just got it into the watch's 300m.
so here's what it looks like with Real speed.
You can see the total distance is only 313.2m. because that's where trackpoints puts your 50m separation.
If you add another 3m and calculate for 53m
here's what you get.
So another 3m separation gives you an extra 43m total distance, lifting the average speed.
So I conclude from this that the watches doppler calculation of separation is an extra 3m here. So safest if you want to make sure of your alphas, aim for 47-48m not 50m