Technically yes...however if the previous two 'run ins' have any significant influence on your behavior towards when and where you surf and for how long, then the probably of a third 'run in' may not strictly be an independent 'flip of the coin'.
Having said that, I always enter the water with the comfort knowing that regardless of my actions, the odds are extremely stacked in my favour. I say that as someone who works in the water as well as plays. I roll the dice daily.
Looked fat but would have been a novelty to surf 
