Thanks Steh, didn't think there would be any waves given it is meant to be ENE swell. Sydney is clear about 31 deg already, could be 15 K ENE/NE by arvo.

Southerly came through the airport at 20-25 K between 5-5.30. There was a guy in the Harbour at Manly and I had a look at Queenscliff but not windy enough.

The forecast keeps pushing the southerly back on Sunday but 25 K from 'gong through to Newie. YES!

I am always a bit suspect when Bom forecasts a mid day Southerly change. From what I have seen the last 13 years while living in Sydney during summer the Southerlies most arrive in Sydney around 5pm. I have no idea why but it just seems to be that way.

other observations:

- The Southerly is ALWAYS strongest at the airport runway. I think it's because the wind is pushed around the cliff/ highland around the Royal National park. It then spits out at the airport...

- The southerly at Gerroa really sucks big time. There is a massive windward jam &x28;good the german word for this explains things so much better aka Luv-stau&x29; against Saddleback Mountain resulting in mediocre and gusty conditions while on the Northern side from about Shellharbour the leeward wind effect creates some awesome conditions.

- It usually takes 90 minutes for the Southerly to reach Sydney Airport once the Kiama station registers it.

- It usually take 40 minutes for the Southerly to reach Sydney Airport once the Belambi station registers it.

- The Belambi station reading are usually similar to what the Sydney Airport will register. However, at times the Airport reading can be higher by 10 to 15 knts. ...

- An afternoon Southerly arrival can usually be timed almost to the minute using the above rules... read you can drive to the beach, rig the appropriate sail size &x28;based on the Belambi reading&x29; and stand at the waters edge just before the change arrives.

hm... I think I am just excited about the possibility of a real good sail in a nice Southerly.

BTW, I'd say there are about 20 knts down at the heads but it's still flat.

Southerlies on the Northern Beaches are only measured by the North Head meteorological station, which is at 90m elevation. This is not truly representative of the wind at sea level.

Yesterday was a good example. I've sailed at Long Reef for many years in a wide variety of conditions. North Head reported a max gust of 30 knots, while I sailed for around 1 hour with a 4.2m sail and 83 litre board. Overpowered the whole time (with cramped forearms) until the wind dropped. I would have guessed 25 or 30-35 knots.

It really doesn't matter what the wind strength is - rig whatever you think appropriate and make the most of it (or change sails if necessary).

Cheers