d11wtq said..
.....
What's generally the most reliable place to look?
Out of the window
Weather forecasting seems to be an art, not a science.
Three most important rules with the forecasts are :
No matter what the forecast is the actual conditions are inversely proportional to your work commitments
The forecast is always better the further out it goes
If you don't like the forecast look for another, there will be one somewhere saying what you want it to