I'm pretty sure we won't see a Chinese man on the podium in 2012.
Aichen Wang (CHN-1) is one of the best RSX lightwind sailors on the planet - no arguments there. He is a pumping machine and extremely lightweight (I've heard rumours of 58kg) even though he is relatively tall for a Chinese male.
Problem is. He gets PUNISHED when the wind is above 10 knots. Have a look at his results in Beijing...
www.sailing.org/olympics/resultscentre.phpRace 6,7,8 were the windy races with planing conditions (by windy I mean 8 knots or so). You can tell they were windy because Dutchman Casper Bouman got 1,1,2 in these races as he's for sure the fastest RSX sailor on the planet in planing conditions... even faster than Tom Ashley (NZL-1). Aichen couldn't get in the top 10 in any of these races...
Not to say that he's not a 'good' sailor in planing conditions (wow, I'd be happy with a Top 20 result in any race at the Olympics) ... just to say he's not going to 'win' races in planing conditions...
London has an imposed wind minimum of 6 knots for the 2012 Games, and for sure its going to be PLENTY windy in Weymouth then...
My 0.02c
But yes, this is most likely relative to how much $$$ you put in to sport. My gymnast friends tell me the amount of money China put in to their Gymnastics team this year was so incredible, Russia wasn't even in the ballpark with them.
Imagine how much England is going to spend on its Olympic sailing team in the next 4-years... I think we'll most likely see Brits on the podium in both male/female windsurfing ... but we'll see...