how bad will it get?

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cwamit
cwamit
WA
1194 posts
WA, 1194 posts
6 Dec 2008 8:53am
do you think we are heading for a recession , depression or will maintain growth?

i think we are heading for a recession, hearing about the amount of job loss's going on atm in the mining and financial sector , how mates in the building house industry work has slowed to a few days per week. its not looking good.

i think the main reason oil prices have dropped has been the rise of the us dollar to what it was only several months ago. since most oil is traded on us dollars, petro dollars as far as i understand anyhow.. it only seems yesterday that the opec countries where being urge to increase production, yet they haven't reduced production to offset the price plunge from 150 to 44 dollars a barrel...


things looks worse though in america, with deflation going on atm the government are trying to put money into american hands to stimulate the spending, problem as far as i can understand is the average american is eyeballed to dept their equity has vanished from drop of house prices and so they have nothing to borrow on , which leads to the banks with the 700 billion dollar bailout , banks wont lend to each other because of the past dodgey deals of the sub prim market (which coincidently was what pushed house prices up and equity up of the american to borrow on) as well as the current overall situation being so unstable and going back to the negative equity of houses. this is helping to cause deflation.

basically banks are hoarding money atm, so there is no growth but contraction.

with the government forced to print more money to increase the flow of money and counterbalance the deflation, they are running the risk sometime down the track of hyperinflation, with the yanky dollar being the worlds currency if the world starts selling off the dollar again as it did from this previous year then the americans are in huge trouble.


whats your thoughts on the situation?

hoop
hoop
1979 posts
1979 posts
6 Dec 2008 10:12am
Get over it.
elmo
elmo
WA
8890 posts
WA, 8890 posts
6 Dec 2008 10:13am
Money is an illusion, my money doubly so
stribo
stribo
QLD
1628 posts
QLD, 1628 posts
6 Dec 2008 11:26am
If you have a job start stockpiling as much windsurfing gear you can and maybe some camping and fishing gear and maybe a few sacks of rice.
If your gunna be jobless,broke and homeless you may as well live off the sea up north somewhere and sail everyday you can untill it all blows over.

That doesn't sound too depressing to me.
NDH47
NDH47
NSW
102 posts
NSW, 102 posts
6 Dec 2008 2:52pm
Since it all went pear shaped i've actually been more busy. It depends on what job/trade your in. Real estate and finance companies etc. will probably be doing it tough.
In the States the banks were giving people zero deposit homeloans to anyone whether they could afford it or not and when they couldn't afford it they could just go hand the keys in and walk away leaving the banks owning all these mortgages worth sh!t. It just shows how much the world economy is tied up in what the Seppo's are doing even in there own backyard.

I think the windsurfing, kitesurfing, surfing industry will be Ok as these are part of lifes necessities
Cassa
Cassa
WA
1305 posts
WA, 1305 posts
6 Dec 2008 2:11pm
Well well , I think things are pretty good at the moment, LOW interest rates, CHEAP petrol, and as for the building industry (Ive been in for 25 years) times like this get rid of all the d...heads and rubbush tradesmen ,of which there are toooooo many, sure there will be a few hard done but but most of us still go to the same job , get the same pay still live in the same house, hey life goes on if we all were despondant negative thinkers what a drag life would be. go forward, move ahead ,be happy its not too late!!!! whip it good!!
NotWal
NotWal
QLD
7436 posts
QLD, 7436 posts
6 Dec 2008 3:35pm
hoop said...

Get over it.


I agree. Value is a matter of faith. If enough silly sods go around saying the sky is falling it will.

As I understand it, in the general scheme of things, this "recession" is trivial.
cwamit
cwamit
WA
1194 posts
WA, 1194 posts
6 Dec 2008 3:43pm
NotWal said...

hoop said...

Get over it.


I agree. Value is a matter of faith. If enough silly sods go around saying the sky is falling it will.

As I understand it, in the general scheme of things, this "recession" is trivial.


almost right, value is a matter of confidence , no confidence and value decreases.

it does amaze me how people have opinions of global warming solutions yet fail to understand the global monetary system, they both go hand in hand, as to why there hasn't been and wont be for some time progress in real terms to changing our use of fossil fuels... particularly oil to less /zero carbon pumping energy supplies.

here is something to think about for those with the passion of the global warming...

at the population growth rate of 1.3 percent it will take about 470 years for the earths population to grow so it is to use 1 person per square meter on all the earths dry land mass .. lol... i might be a little out with the percentage as well as the years.. i.e. one or two percent out or ten years out either side.

it is great that interest rates are down for those that can hold their job, think of the people that have lost their jobs, the miners, the financial sector they no doubt have dept, probably a mortgage - somehow i don't think they are over it though. they are high paying professions which eventually have a trickle down effect to everyone.. even the trades person.

i agree with two comments, confidence (faith?) and self prophecy (by being a negative nancy) do go hand in hand. if everyone thinks the economy is ruined and stop spending, more jobs are lost and the whole system grinds to a halt...

the second comment even though in jest of the book hitchickers guide to the galaxy is in fact closer to the truth than many people are aware , money is an illusion, at least the cash stuff is and its not doubly so.. its more than 10 times the illusion .

maybe i should have made my topic "how interesting the monetary system is".. because i don't see all the gloom, but i am interested in other peoples opinions on the subject, i don't know everything about the system, and prior to taking some time to look into it.. i didn't really care to know. i would have the same replies as what has been given so far, largely in part to ignorance of how the worlds economies work... no offense intended either to the replies.. all part of a forum...especially a wind sport forum...

i don't believe in higher powers at play.. manipulating everything for a new world order.. i generally laugh at those type of people..

i hope things don't go bad to the point of a depression.. i think Australia is to a large degree insulated due to the fact we trade with china, (china wont fall in a hole, it cant or history will repeat itself in that country and then we really will be in the shyt). china will take up the mantle eventually (possibly sooner than later) as the worlds main economical force by changing from a producing nation to a more consumer orientated one.

we also have a surplus in the gov coffers to spend back into the economy.. we still have moderate savings, the government is taking the right approach as as far as improving infrastructure primarily to increase production , although i think trying to have consumers spend its way out of the recession is a long term downside that may come back to bite.

maybe i should stop flogging this dead horse of a subject on the forum and join another one..lol

winds up. time for a kite!






Mobydisc
Mobydisc
NSW
9029 posts
NSW, 9029 posts
6 Dec 2008 9:46pm
stribo said...

If you have a job start stockpiling as much windsurfing gear you can and maybe some camping and fishing gear and maybe a few sacks of rice.
If your gunna be jobless,broke and homeless you may as well live off the sea up north somewhere and sail everyday you can untill it all blows over.

That doesn't sound too depressing to me.


Great advice. I bought my wife a beginners board last week. She is getting into it, doing her first gybe last Sunday and sailing back to where she started. She works for a big yankee bank and times are tough. If the **** hits the fan we will just move back to my parent's farm and live in a shack there. Grow some beans or other produce to sell.



We had dinner with one of her clients a little while ago. She told us an interesting tale of a Chinese guy in Hong Kong. When this fellow was a whipper snapper, probably about 100 years ago a three piece suit cost him a gold coin. 80 years later a three piece suit cost him a gold coin.

Edit: how bad will it get? That all depends how many people lose their jobs. Australians are just as leveraged with debt as Americans. The big difference between here and there are Australian house prices will probably not collapse like they have in America, plus employment is still reasonable strong here. KRudd has no real answer to the problems facing us. If our economy collapses it will be best to survive as best we can, even if that means we have to live like paupers. Our ancestors did this so we will manage. We are the offspring of the survivors.



cwamit
cwamit
WA
1194 posts
WA, 1194 posts
6 Dec 2008 8:08pm
yes, gold is the best way to hedge against inflation, its possible at least in American dollars that the price of gold will double by end of next year and possibly double the following year again.... worse case situation.

its interesting to note that during the last great depression that the only stock on the stock market that did exceptionally well was the gold stock....

there was an article in the state rag regarding the perth mint not able to supply the demand of gold coins.

most people know about Zimbabwe and its rampant inflation, its not the only country , many others have had the same problem.. france back in the 17th century.. in fact it was one factors that caused the revolution .

the former Yugoslav had the same problem back in the 90's during its ethnic cleansing.

Germany is another country after world war one, it suffered from hyperinflation. wars are not cheap - they had loads of dept and had to pay off those dept, simple approach was to just print lots of money , the money eventually came back into the country and had devalued the currency, it came to the point where people where burning their money because it was cheaper than to buy coal for heating and cooking. to go back to gold, there is a German gold coin from the 17 century that could buy you a meal on the town today ,as it did back in the 17th century.

hoop
hoop
1979 posts
1979 posts
6 Dec 2008 8:55pm
I think you're freaking out. Get over it.
Hausey
Hausey
NSW
325 posts
NSW, 325 posts
7 Dec 2008 12:49am
it aint all about making money and being greedy - speculating on stuff like gold or whatever.....that is what has caused this mess that the planet is today

Cassa
Cassa
WA
1305 posts
WA, 1305 posts
7 Dec 2008 10:38am
A little too in depth, ....... For me its time to get back out on the water, and enjoy ,,,, after all most of you would agree that when your on the water NOTHING else gets in your head!!! go relax!!!!!!!
theDoctor
theDoctor
NSW
5786 posts
NSW, 5786 posts
7 Dec 2008 8:47pm


actiomax
actiomax
NSW
1576 posts
NSW, 1576 posts
7 Dec 2008 11:48pm
hey i agree with cassa it doesn't mater what industry people who had no right bulging of others just to make up numbers will always suffer first and there are always no hope-rs at anything but these people think that TV is a sport so it wont affect anybody on this site because everybody is motivated my theory because they get in the water things will get tough while peple panic my work has slowed up others got he sack im a builder change company its tough i had to work all weekend in a brothel at petersham lucky i only built them a sunroof lol
evlPanda
evlPanda
NSW
9207 posts
NSW, 9207 posts
8 Dec 2008 5:24pm
I've been so poor that somebody stole my food stamps.
DL
DL
WA
659 posts
DL DL
WA, 659 posts
8 Dec 2008 3:43pm
cwamit said...
it is great that interest rates are down for those that can hold their job, think of the people that have lost their jobs, the miners, the financial sector they no doubt have dept, probably a mortgage


Shouldn't have bought that new V8 Landcruiser, jetski and holiday house on the coast on debt when you got promoted to mine manager / hedge fund manager. If you are willing to accept risk, you should be willing to accept the consequences.

You make your bed, you sleep in it.
62mac
62mac
WA
24860 posts
WA, 24860 posts
8 Dec 2008 4:18pm
Dont hold back DL,I agree you over expose yourself (living like a king)one day it will alway's bite ya!

mac

PS DL,enjoyed your stir on the other post! kite v windsurf.

mac
DL
DL
WA
659 posts
DL DL
WA, 659 posts
8 Dec 2008 4:51pm
62mac said...

Dont hold back DL,I agree you over expose yourself (living like a king)one day it will alway's bite ya!

mac

PS DL,enjoyed your stir on the other post! kite v windsurf.

mac



heh, that wasn't even stirring.

I was going to make an analogy that compared kiting to a Britney Spears pop song, but I thought I'd hold back
62mac
62mac
WA
24860 posts
WA, 24860 posts
8 Dec 2008 4:55pm
lol DL
62mac
62mac
WA
24860 posts
WA, 24860 posts
8 Dec 2008 5:00pm
OK the media talks about the doom and gloom,but on the up side,these are the times to pick up a bargain if you can ride the storm out!

Who works in retail (please give no names)I would be interested to hear how your sales are over the past four months? and you down 10/15/20/25/30%?

mac
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14953 posts
QLD, 14953 posts
8 Dec 2008 7:24pm
DL said...

cwamit said...
it is great that interest rates are down for those that can hold their job, think of the people that have lost their jobs, the miners, the financial sector they no doubt have dept, probably a mortgage


Shouldn't have bought that new V8 Landcruiser, jetski and holiday house on the coast on debt when you got promoted to mine manager / hedge fund manager. If you are willing to accept risk, you should be willing to accept the consequences.

You make your bed, you sleep in it.


i don't think recessions an unemployment just target landcruiser driving jet ski riding holiday home owning people.

they're normally the ones that can sell assets and recover.

it's the poor that get kicked the hardest.
DL
DL
WA
659 posts
DL DL
WA, 659 posts
8 Dec 2008 6:36pm
Gestalt said...
i don't think recessions an unemployment just target landcruiser driving jet ski riding holiday home owning people.

they're normally the ones that can sell assets and recover.

it's the poor that get kicked the hardest.


What I meant, was that living beyond your means is risky. It applies to everyone.

I just see Landcruisers towing a double jetski trailer as everything that synonimises wasted money.
patsken
patsken
WA
717 posts
WA, 717 posts
8 Dec 2008 7:53pm
I live in the western suburbs of Perth and I see V8 Landys, 4wd Beemers, Volvos and Porche Cayennes towing the BRATS to the $17000 a year schools when there is a perfectly good public transport system that only costs a gold coin.

What recession ???
cwamit
cwamit
WA
1194 posts
WA, 1194 posts
8 Dec 2008 9:48pm
DL said...

Gestalt said...
i don't think recessions an unemployment just target landcruiser driving jet ski riding holiday home owning people.

they're normally the ones that can sell assets and recover.

it's the poor that get kicked the hardest.


What I meant, was that living beyond your means is risky. It applies to everyone.

I just see Landcruisers towing a double jetski trailer as everything that synonimises wasted money.



three questions...

do you work?

have you borrowed money?

if your work takes a dive and your left with out sustainable income, have you been living beyond your means?




todays 10 billion dollar stimulus package it aimed at consuming. regardless if you have a credit card debt the gov wants you to spend spend spend spend. to keep the economy going...... sure a grand cant buy a jetski.. although i might look in the quoka (having a backup when kitesurfing in offshore winds would be assuring )

i don't think people that manufacture jetski's or sell them like the idea of cheap second hand jetskis on the market though! they might have to lay someone off, due to decreased production and sales.... of course it wont matter if that person drives a landcruiser though... its imported and they probably are living beyond there means too... , or for that matter the jet ski company was probably producing beyond their means..... btw i dislike jetski's

come to think of it.. million dollar mansions along hillaries should devalue to what i can afford.... the owners clearly live beyond their means too... probably all mine managers, fk it - lets just have a revolution untill we are living in caves and within our means......anyone like dolphin steak?
evlPanda
evlPanda
NSW
9207 posts
NSW, 9207 posts
9 Dec 2008 1:53pm
This bad:

"Merrill Lynch & Co Chief Executive John Thain has suggested to directors that he get a 2008 bonus of as much as $10 million...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081208/bs_nm/us_merrill_bonus
MikeyS
MikeyS
VIC
1509 posts
VIC, 1509 posts
9 Dec 2008 2:28pm
The sun is still going to come up tomorrow. And if it doesn't, I'm going to sleep in.
beastsurf
beastsurf
WA
902 posts
WA, 902 posts
9 Dec 2008 12:32pm
The global finacial meltdown has been an excuse for the seppo govt to by the whole finacial sector and regain control from the the big multi national companies that threatened to take over the world. Power to the people even if it hurts the hip pocket a bit at first.

I take my hat of to the french and the greeks who really get out there and protest when thier angry at the govt.
Cassa
Cassa
WA
1305 posts
WA, 1305 posts
10 Dec 2008 9:15am
My biggest problem is that I am having a week off to relax and get ready for xmas and the weather is crap!! cant get out on the water... oooh well have to make a few hundred more stubbies of home brew (30cents each) and run the still to make a few dozen more bottles of spirit (aprox $10 each) .... Hey maybe thats why I dont care what the world is saying about global ressesion, I save thousand on home brew ..... THE MORE YOU DRINK THE MORE YOU SAVE!!!!!!!........ want to know how contact me its a great hobbie mmmm much better subject to discusss......... what were we talking about before ?
choco
choco
SA
4181 posts
SA, 4181 posts
10 Dec 2008 11:38pm
You will know that we are in real trouble if they start issuing 200 millon dollar bank notes,like they are in Zimbabwe,their inflation rate is 157millon %, so a 200 mil note might buy you some bread.
Don't feel sorry for them because it was one of Africa's stronger economies until they started kicking out/assulting and killing the white Zimbabwens they all packed up and left the country,Mugarbage couldn't run an ant farm.
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