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4:00 PM Sun 21 Dec 2008 GMT
Torben Grael and Ericsson 4 have seen their lead ground into dust in the last 24 hours, but the jury is out on whether it's beneath the wheels of a tank, or broken and busted on the roulette tables of Las Vegas. No one likes it when it's more casino than race course out there, but it's hard to leave Las Vegas when you're on a winning streak.
At 10:00 ZULU, Telefonica Blue were on a serious winning streak, rumbling up the beaches of Malaysia to finally take back the lead that they held across the Bay of Bengal. Ericsson 3 are hard on their heels and up into second, with PUMA (struggling for speed recently, for no obvious reason) up into third, while Ericsson 4 fought desperately to get inshore with them, and to stop the losses.
While Ericsson 4 were progressing smoothly in the lead, well off the coast, second placed Bouwe Bekking and Telefonica Blue had got too close to the Indonesian beaches for comfort, and a big cloud had just taken 20 miles off them while they fought their way back offshore. That had allowed Anders Lewander and Ericsson 3 to slip through into second place.
And so it turned out, Ericsson 3's moment of glory lasted just two Position Reports. By 16:00 ZULU Saturday afternoon they had been dumped back to fourth, with PUMA and Telefonica Blue going through to take second and third - it seemed that there was still a more reliable breeze on the middle of the Straits. This situation remained relatively stable through the hours of darkness.
Overnight, Ericsson 4's stately procession at the head of the fleet continued unhindered, while PUMA and Telefonica Blue traded second and third, racing side-by-side, with Ericsson 3 playing catch up, having got themselves out of the glue-pot off the beach.
But come the sunrise, we were back into the transition zone, when the sun starts to heat the land faster than the water (it's a specific heat capacity thing), and the sea breeze has to be factored into the strategy for the daylight hours. The $64 question was . . . how?
The previous day's experiences had taught everyone that the Indonesia coast was a mileage swallowing black hole. But, as we mentioned at the end of yesterday's TEN ZULU, the Race Office's Malacca Strait waypoints would eventually force everyone onto the Malaysia side of the Strait, which has a different relationship to the gradient wind, and therefore different prospects for the sea breeze. And the gradient wind was forecast to drop, which, combined with the tide strengthening as they sailed south, meant there was every chance that today would be different. Or would it?
So, who picked what?
During the (local time) night, the fleet had separated into three lanes: the northern group, closest to the Malaysian shore, constituted PUMA, Telefonica Blue and Ericsson 3; to their south, and running down the middle of the Strait, was the leader, Ericsson 4, chased by both Telefonica Black, and rather further back, Team Russia; while Green Dragon were ploughing a lonely furrow to the south, closest to the Indonesian shore.
Ericsson 4 was first to be faced with a critical decision, as just before the dawn locally, their north-easterly gradient breeze started to fade and veer (rotate clockwise) to the south-east. So . . . tack and go inshore, or stay with what had so far been the reliable wind in the middle of the Straits?
They chose to stay on port tack, going south, sailing further into the middle of the Straits for three or four hours, before finally tacking and heading inshore towards the Malaysian coast a couple of hours after sunrise.
The leaders of the northern group now ran out of wind as the gradient north-easterly gave up on them, the brakes coming on at about the same time that Ericsson 4 tacked to head inshore. Ken Read and his team on PUMA were forced to sit motionless beside Telefonica Blue, and they both watched Ericsson 3 sail right up beside them.
The tension started to ratchet up, but all three boats were obviously convinced that inshore was the place to be, and they continued to battle their way towards the beach in whatever wind they had.
And by late morning (local time) the roulette ball was starting to drop into place, with the sea breeze filling in from the north - as Bouwe Bekking explained in his latest email. Telefonica Blue, PUMA and Ericsson 3 were soon battling each other for every inch, gybing down the coast of Malaysia in a pack, spurring each other on - for the next eight hours or so of daylight the sea breeze would remain, backing (rotating anti-clockwise) slowly into the south-west, driving them towards the finish line, and fast.
But no sooner were the northern pack moving, than Ericsson 4 found herself running out of wind as they hit the transition zone. And for the rest of the day, Torben Grael and Ericsson 4 sat, almost motionless, and watched their lead evaporate, one Position Report after another, until it was all gone - and some.
But, they did catch the last of the sea breeze and got onto the tail of the others for the 10:00 ZULU Position Report. And that time was crucial, as it means that the sun was about to set, the sea breeze about to die, and the whole cycle to begin again.
Viva Las Vegas.?
Behind the lead group, Telefonica Black has done the best job of getting inshore to the sea breeze, and they've got a decent push southwards as their reward. The others have not fared so well.
The tide's against them all at 10:00 ZULU, and will be for another two or three hours. Everyone inshore has at least a knot and a half less current against them than the boats in the middle of the channel. That advantage will become even more important if the wind drops again.
But will it? Race Forecaster, Jennifer Lilly, has some good news in her latest analysis, predicting that a northerly gradient should fill in soon. If it does, then it's possible that we've seen the decisive play, and the fleet has a relatively straight-forward passage to Singapore, but I wouldn't er. bet on it.
But, despite high anxiety levels for this cat, it does look like the Grinch won't steal the fleet's Xmas.
Volvo Ocean Race - Leg Three Day Nine: 14:00 GMT Volvo Ocean Race Positions:
1 Telef?nica Blue ESP (Bouwe Bekking/NED) DTF 206 nm
2 Ericsson 3 SWE (Anders Lewander/SWE) +1
3 PUMA Racing Team USA (Ken Read/USA) +2
4 Ericsson 4 SWE (Torben Grael/BRA) +3
5 Telef?nica Black ESP (Fernando Ech?varri/ESP) +25
6 Green Dragon IRL/CHN (Ian Walker/GBR) +56
7 Team Russia RUS (Andreas Hanakamp/AUT) +67
8 Delta Lloyd IRL (Roberto Bermudez/ESP) +198
The full Mark Chisnell TEN ZULU REPORT is available on www.volvooceanrace.org/news/article/2008/december/TEN-ZULU-L3-D9/index.aspx
The TEN ZULU REPORT (so called because it follows the 10:00 GMT fleet position report, and Zulu is the meteorologist's name for GMT).
by Mark Chisnell
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