Sydney Hobart handicap fleet -whether the weather gate opens for you?

11:44 AM Mon 28 Dec 2009 GMT

'Wild Oats and followers - at the finish of the Rolex Sydney Hobart Race 2006' Crosbie Lorimer

Computer driven handicap predictions for the 628 mile Rolex Sydney to Hobart race ignore the fact that most races are won and lost in the last 40 miles from Tasman Light across Storm Bay, past the Iron Pot and up the Derwent.

Every ten minutes or so, the computers spit out a new number set, with ranking. At best, these need to be taken with a tablespoon of sea salt.

In the maze of numbers, there is one more important than all the others in deciding if the figures are 'back of the boat fantasy land stuff' or not.

It's the ETA. Turn Tasman Light at 20:00 and Huey says 'Good that you could come and thank your mother for the fish' or words to that effect..

The reason is the factor that has caused heartache and grief in the last 64 Hobart races - the Derwent River goes to sleep at night.

A boat arriving at the Iron Pot 11 miles from the finish line might have averaged ten knots from Eddystone Light to Storm Bay. However it may take two or three or four hours, depending just how tired the Derwent is. It seems most Hobart sailors have a story to tell and year after year, they look for sympathy from other sailors, but they don't get it.

Many a boat has been famous at 20:00 hours, but at 03:00 is drifting up the Derwent.

You see the Wind Gods use the Sydney Hobart race to remind mortals that most things in life are about timing. So it's way too early to decide a handicap chance, which is most easily done when the boats are tied up in Constitution Dock.

As one veteran sailor commented some time ago 'this is a race that is often won from the Customs House Hotel or the Shipwrights Arms.'

Not just a few sailors have had the Weather Gate slam in their face; just about every one of us has had a 'Derwent experience'.

(A Sail-World tip - use a lighted candle in a winch socket to find the breeze, it's more sensitive than cigarette smoke and it winds up the smokers who have been dreaming they would get a quick few puffs on the non-smoking boat in the wee small hours on the Derwent River.)

So we are not going to spend tonight writing feverishly about the half hourly changes in Handicap positions, we are going to have a few Tasmanian Boags or Cascades and do what the Derwent does - go to sleep.

Here is the list of some of the boats that will be affected by the weather gate tomorrow morning and tomorrow night.

Standings At racetime 02:09:30 - 28 December 2009, 10:30pm

									EST. ELAPSED			EST. CORR.
	YACHT NAME	DIV	LAT	LONG	DTG	SOG	COG		TIME & SPEED		H'CAP	TIME & SPEED

IRC Overall

1	AFR Midnight Rambler	2	40? 23' S	149? 18' E	221.5	9.2	188		03:09:39:24	7.7	1.159	03:22:38:24	6.6
	Ed Psaltis (28) NSW		51nm SE of Flinders Island					29 Dec, 10:39pm
					Time to Win			03:21:21:14 30 Dec, 10:21am

2	Tow Truck	2	40? 17' S	149? 23' E	228.6	10.3	192		03:10:45:49	7.6	1.15	03:23:10:41	6.6
	Anthony Paterson (8) NSW		51nm SE of Flinders Island					29 Dec, 11:45pm
					Time to Win			03:22:05:04 30 Dec, 11:05am

3	Chutzpah	2	40? 26' S	149? 11' E	216.9	10.3	188		03:07:32:15	7.9	1.203	03:23:41:01	6.6
	Bruce Taylor(28) VIC		48nm SE of Flinders Island					29 Dec, 8:32pm
					Time to Win			03:17:56:22 30 Dec, 6:56am


4	Imagination	3	40? 07' S	149? 27' E	239.1	8.1	184		03:13:24:06	7.4	1.123	03:23:54:22	6.6
	Robin Hawthorn NSW		51nm E of Flinders Island					30 Dec, 2:24am
					Time to Win			04:00:20:47 30 Dec, 1:20pm

5	Shogun	1	41? 30' S	149? 18' E	159.4	9.2	188		02:23:28:32	8.8	1.36	04:01:12:24	6.5
	Rob Hanna VIC		44nm E of St Helens Point					29 Dec, 12:28pm
					Time to Win			03:07:33:24 29 Dec, 8:33pm

6	Ragamuffin	1	41? 09' S	149? 22' E	180.0	7.0	196		03:00:45:10	8.6	1.342	04:01:38:03	6.4
	Syd Fischer NSW		46nm E of St Helens Point					29 Dec, 1:45pm
					Time to Win			03:08:37:25 29 Dec, 9:37pm


7	Charisma	3	40? 02' S	149? 36' E	246.0	8.6	200		03:15:40:32	7.2	1.118	04:02:01:17	6.4
	Alejandro Perez Calzada Spain		58nm E of Flinders Island					30 Dec, 4:40am
					Time to Win			04:00:46:38 30 Dec, 1:46pm

8	Evolution Racing	0	41? 15' S	149? 15' E	172.3	7.0	180		03:00:20:27	8.7	1.357	04:02:09:59	6.4
	Ray Roberts NSW		40nm E of St Helens Point					29 Dec, 1:20pm
					Time to Win			03:07:43:57 29 Dec, 8:43pm

9	Cougar II	1	41? 05' S	149? 22' E	183.9	10.8	204		03:00:58:57	8.6	1.347	04:02:18:27	6.4
	Alan Whiteley (4) VIC		47nm E of Eddystone Pt					29 Dec, 1:58pm
					Time to Win			03:08:19:28 29 Dec, 9:19pm


10	Shortwave	1	41? 07' S	149? 10' E	177.9	9.2	188		03:00:53:51	8.6	1.349	04:02:20:19	6.4
	Matthew Short (5) NSW		38nm E of St Helens Point					29 Dec, 1:53pm
					Time to Win			03:08:12:19 29 Dec, 9:12pm

11	Patrice Six	3	40? 09' S	149? 43' E	241.2	7.6	196		03:16:01:53	7.1	1.119	04:02:30:26	6.4
	Tony Kirby (27) NSW		64nm E of Flinders Island					30 Dec, 5:01am
					Time to Win			04:00:41:27 30 Dec, 1:41pm